World War 3 has been a popular topic of recent books and astrological predictions. (Few years ago a Nostradamus prediction interpreted by author Michael Rathford said that there would be a WWIII in 2007 and the Antichrist would be resposnsible for it. It urned out to be quite an uneventful year).

While the books are mostly fiction, the ground realities today reflect a movement towards such a calamity. Yes, ‘calamity’ would be the world to describe the thrid world war, for I have no doubt that it will be a nuclear one. I have my reasons and speculations as to who, where and what will trigger this ghastly war and what will be the opposing factions.

Let us begin. Which is the most volatile region in the world today? Where have the planners  9/11, London bombings and 26/11 Mumbai been traced to? Which is the only Islamic country in the world to possess nuclear weapons?

All roads lead to Pakistan.

A culture of disinformation and conspiracy theories seems to have gripped that country which was formed in 1947 after partition from India at the end of the British Raj. New York times journalist Robert Mackey writes on his blog  about a recent survey which shows that despite strong indications that the attacks in Mumbai last November were the work of a militant group based in Pakistan, Pakistanis  overwhelmingly said that they did not believe the media reports.

Results from a survey of Pakistan public opinion conducted in March, 2009.

Asked, by the same pollsters, to say who they believed was behind the attacks in Mumbai, the largest number of Pakistanis pointed the finger at the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s intelligence service. Just one per cent of the sample said that terrorists were responsible, while 20 times that many Pakistanis blamed America:

International Republican Institute

The recently retired general of Pakistan’s notorius spy agency – the Directorate of Inter-Services-Intelligence (ISI) Hamid Gul said in a CNN interview that 9/11 was an inside job carried out by ‘Zionnist entities.’ In fact, when you read the comments on youtube posted by users from Pakistan, don’t be surprised that they think Mossad is behind all the terror acts that have happened in the past decade or so. It is quite apparent that a vast disinformation machinery is at work in Pakistan and is successful enough to have the educated elite in its fold.

With the ISI unwilling to purge itself from its links with Taliban, Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups inspite of Pakistan being a major ‘ally’ in the ‘war on terror,’ another large-scale terror strike should be around the corner. Most vulnerable to that of course, is neighbouring India. The question is, will India show restraint this time around? Most difficult. The Indian government will be compelled to take military action, and it will in all probability go for limited air strikes against suspected terror training camps across the border.

The bigger question: Will Pakistan retaliate or buckle under international pressure not to do anything stupid? Its difficult to answer this one. The former option will surely lead to a full scale war.

And in the event of such an Indo-Pak war, what will be China doing?

China and India have a long running border dispute since China invaded India in 1962 and there was a short, limted but brutual border war.

Beijing regards Islamabad as a crucial partner in its own regional strategy. China devoted considerable resources to building up Pakistan as a counterweight to India after the 1962 Sino-Indian border war. Pakistan is the largest purchaser of Chinese arms and, according to the Pentagon, accounted for 36 percent of China’s military exports between 2003 and 2007. Chinese technical assistance was critical to Pakistan’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs.(Source: wsws.org)

On the other hand, an Indian-American affair is in full bloom whose most recent exploits were the Civilian nuclear deal granted to India in 2008. America sees in India a counterweight to China, whose new found economic might and relatively secret military programme are causing itching bums in the CIA. No wonder that it allowed Israel to sell the most advanced snooping technology in the world, the Phalcon Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AWACS) to India.

Imagine if North Korea atacked South Korea (as it has recently threatened), and Japan attacked the former country as a precaution. From South Asia to East Asia, the war would spread. The US would be compelled to help Japan, the only victim of  nuclear bombs, as North Korea has got the nukes this time.  Britain will probably come to American aid in whichever war it undertakes, as it always does.  Now, one stray ballistic missile from North Korea, especially with a nuclear warhead, would be enough to get the whole world involved.

The problem is that smaller countries having nuclear weapons would feel more compelled to use them as they might consider the war a threat to their very exisence. Thats the reason I think that in South Asia, it would be Islamabad which goes nuclear first and in the East, it will be Pyongyang. I am not even trying to get into the scale of destruction that would be casused. Horrors best left unimagined!

Even if  (hopefully), there is no third world war, there is a chance that the Taliban might eventually get their hands on Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and then we may see the worst ever terror attack in history.

Which may then, lead to World War III.

It has been hailed as a win-win budget by all, barring the few crtitics that are there to find the cons in each year’s financial plan. P. Chidambram has ensured a populist financial plan, with gains galore for the poor and the middle class.

Following are 21 highlights of India’s Union Budget for 2008-2009:

1. Changes in I-T slab. Threshold of exemption for all Income Tax assesses raised from from Rs 1,10,000 to Rs 1,50,000.

2. Every income tax assessees to get relief of minimum of Rs 4,000.

3. No change in rate of surcharge.

4. New tax slabs will be: 10 per cent for Rs 150,000 to Rs 300,000, 20 per cent for Rs 300,000 to Rs 500,000 and 30 per cent above Rs 500,000.

5. For women, the income tax limit goes up from Rs 1.45 lakh to Rs 1.80 lakh. In case of senior women citizens, it increases from Rs 1.95 lakh to Rs 2.25 lakh.

6. Fresh facilities, encouragement to sports and guest houses exempted from Fringe Benefit Tax.

7. Five year tax holiday for setting up hospitals in tier II and tier III regions for providing healthcare in rural areas from April 1, 2008.

8. Five year tax holiday for promoting cultural tourism.

9. Short-term capital gains increases from 10 per cent to 15 per cent.

10. Commodities Transaction Tax to be introduced on the lines of Securities Transaction Tax.

11. Banking cash transaction tax withdrawn from April one, 2009.

12. Direct tax proposals to be revenue neutral. Indirect tax proposals to result in loss of Rs 5,000 crore.

13. Rs 500 crore for corpus fund to subsidise all women Self Help Groups for LIC [Get Quote] cover for permanent disability.

14. Agricultural loans given by scheduled commercial banks, regional rural banks and cooperative credit institutions up to March 31, 2007 and due for December 31 that year will be covered under the waiver scheme to address the problem of indebtedness.

15. No change in corporate income tax.

16. To protect tigers, Rs 50 crore for National Tiger Conservation Programme. Bulk of it to be used to raise Tiger Protection Force.

17. Plan expenditure fixed at Rs 2,43,000 crore and non plan expenditure at 5,74,000 crore.

18. Fiscal deficit pegged at 3.1 per cent and revenue deficit at 1.4 per cent.

19. Tax to GDP ratio increased from 9.2 per cent in 2004-05 to 12.5 per cent 2007-08.

20. Duty on non filter cigarettes to be raised.

21. Customs duty on specified life saving drugs reduced from ten per cent to five per cent.

Chidambaram said keeping inflation under check is one of the cornerstones of the government’s policy. GDP growth, he said, has slowed to 8.4 per cent during the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as compared to 9.1 per cent a year ago.

However, the finance minister added that the economy grew over eight per cent over 12 successive quarters since 2005.

Barack Obama, Democratic front-runner for the US President, sees Mahatma Gandhi as an inspiration and has a portrait of the apostle of peace in his office to remind him that ordinary people can do extraordinary things.

“In my life, I have always looked to Mahatma Gandhi as an inspiration, because he embodies the kind of transformational change that can be made when ordinary people come together to do extraordinary things,”

Vowing to strengthen ties with the “natural partner” India, Obama has noted that the hardworking Indian-American professionals are adding to the “richness” of the US society and invited the community to join him in “renewing the strength” of this country.

“The world’s oldest democracy and the world’s largest democracy are natural partners, sharing important interests and fundamental democratic values,”

Well isn’t Obama the same guy who was pointing fingers at India’s outsourcing industry for America’s job losses? But aah, he finally eyed the vote bank which the Clintons have always been close to. Better late than never Obama!

Obama, who has edged past rival Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries, said it is his commitment to the critical relationship between the two countries that he voted for the US-India nuclear energy deal on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.